Economic Crises are just bad habits at a large scale

The history of Citicorp and the several rescues it’s many Avatars have seen over the past eighty years has appeared in detail in today’s edition of “The Mint”. It makes for an interesting story and if you read between the lines you will find the tale of a nation that is constantly setting itself up for failure.

Every time the bank has failed starting as early as 1929, the cause has been too liberal a lending policy, insufficient risk management and the need to win market share irrespective of profitability. And by doing so banks such as Citi have created and constantly strengthened the great debt culture that is prevalent across most of the world’s so called developed economies. And ironically enough in doing so have been victims of a system that is of their own creation.

The balance sheet of the average American household is always in the negative. Given the high credit card balances and large mortgages, most people owe far more than they will ever repay given their ability to only make minimum payments. What used to be said of the Indian farmer is true of the average American- they are born into debt, live in debt and will died in debt.

But why does and average American household have all this debt? The simple answer is that the high standard of living that most Americans have come to accept as mandatory can only be serviced by high debt. A television, a car, air-conditioners, a telephone line, even processed and expensive food such as bread and tetra pack milk are considered a norm in every household. You just have to look at the movies- even a guy living in a trailer home will have a telephone and will have a refrigerator and a pantry stocked with cereal and milk and a carton of juice.

So institutions such as Citi have come up with various methods over the years to give people the spending power they need without necessarily worrying about the consequences. So if back in the 1920’s people were able to invest through the then Citibank by putting in only 10% of the money needed to trade (thereby essentially lending them 90% of the rest of the money) in most recent times it was the “unlocked values” of their homes in the form of HELOCS and second mortgages.

Till the habit of over spending does not change, America and the rest of the developed world will always be emerging from one cycle of downturn only to enter another. And this is where the economists in India and other developing economies need to learn a lesson. Measures of development such as the amount of household debt or household income invested in the stock market cannot be used as markers for growth without also understanding the risk involved in increasing their levels.